"It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change!" - Charles Darwin

Friday, 14 December 2012

When we will get rid of Agile!

A short break within the Product Owners team posts thread.

It’s December 2012. Finally!
It has been since the beginning of the year that dozens of TV channels and magazines are filling up shows and pages with THE expected event this month.
Yes, exactly: next week December 21st will mark the completion of the Great Mayan Cycle and the beginning of a New World Age.

I’ve been told by some people recently: “We’re not going to hear about Agile any more in 3 years from now!”

I tend to agree with this. We’re definitely not gonna use the scientific approach anymore and then will not be Agile any more.
The question is: When?
Once a New World Age will come. 
At that time major and maybe catastrophic events will have happened and the following 3 things will have changed profoundly:

  1. The nature of SW development
  2. The nature of human beings
  3. The nature of organizations

  1. SW development will not be a dynamic complex system anymore. Software will not be an intangible artifact and developing SW will not be a collaborative activity anymore, because only one person will be able to solve tough problems fast. Finally SW development will not be heuristic, because we will repeat solving the same problems over and over and build same programs the same way.
  2. Human beings will change and our brain will become a simple linear processor. People will stop being driven by feelings, thoughts, emotions and beliefs and become perfectly predictable and rational beings.
  3. Organizations will stop working as living systems and being complex dynamic networks of brains. BTW, brains will be flat and simple by that time and managers will be able to model their organizations like simple machines, where everything goes exactly as planned and no change in business or environment can ever happen.

This dreaming new era will definitely carry sheltered days, where all complexities are removed and future can be forecast.

I do not have a prophecy about when this will happen exactly, but until then I’m afraid we have no chance.
Complexity calls for complexity: we all would like things to be easier and schedulable. Meanwhile an empirical process control is the only way I know to handle creative work and dominate the chaos coming from a continuously changing environment.

Let’s see what happens with Mayan Prophecy in the meantime.

And if we will still be here, have a restful Christmas holiday and a great New Year!

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